2nd Working Group Meeting Oslo

Workshop on physical modeling supporting a “storyline approach”

While narratives or storylines have been used for decades in social sciences and beyond (e.g. RCPs, SSPs, economic risk assessment), the concept of analyzing and communicating high-impact weather extreme events in the climate change context via storylines has recently gained quite some popularity in the climate modeling community.

Storylines are also a useful way to investigate and communicate compound events, which are in the focus of the COST Action (CA17109) DAMOCLES “Understanding and modeling compound climate and weather events”.


In this workshop, we will review the current approaches to generate event-based storylines using physical modelling, and explore how they can be most effectively integrated into the wider climate information landscape in a way that helps climate communication and policies.

The workshop is divided into thematic sessions, consisting of a series of short talks followed by breakout sessions, in which we will discuss a number of questions and formulate recommendations for future application of event-based storylines.

The range of topics covered includes:

What are the challenges and advantages of this storyline approach (basically picking a particular event) compared to the full probabilistic approach?

How can storylines or narratives of specific events be combined with probabilistic approaches?

What kind of models (GCM, RCM, convection-permitting, impact models) are required to support the storyline approach, and are useful to include in a model chain approach?

What should be considered when designing the model experiments for localized events (e.g., resolution, ensemble size and design, choice of scenario/forcing/initial conditions)?

What are useful approaches to combine physical with statistical modeling and the knowledge from other domains (e.g., social sciences, impact modeling)?

Webpage : https://www.cicero.oslo.no/en/publications-and-events_twex/workshop-on-physical-modeling-supporting-a-storyline-approach

Report : LINK!!