Event-based storylines to address climate risk

Authors: Jana Sillmann and Theodore G Shepherd and Bart van den Hurk and Wilco Hazeleger and Olivia Martius and Julia Slingo and Jakob Zscheischler
Journal: Earth's Future
Year: 2020

Abstract The climate science community is challenged to adopt an actionable risk perspective, which is difficult to align with the traditional focus on model-based probabilistic climate change projections. Event-based storylines can provide a way out of this conundrum by putting emphasis on plausibility rather than probability. This links directly to common practices in disaster risk management using "stress-testing" for emergency preparedness based on events that are conditional on specific and plausible assumptions. Event-based storylines allow for conditional explanations, without full attribution of every causal factor, which is crucial when some aspects of the latter are complex and highly uncertain.